In what has shaped up to be one of the most unlikely movie showdowns of the summer, Barbie seems poised to beat Oppenheimer at the box office.
Per The Hollywood Reporter, Warner Bros.' Barbie entered box office tracking with a potential opening of $70-80 million, with some thinking that more is in the cards for the highly anticipated film. On the other end of the spectrum, Universal's Oppenheimer is expected to debut with about $40 million. While the latter is not bad for an R-rated three-hour drama that is targeting a demo older than the demo for Barbie, it would be one of Nolan's weakest openings should the tracking estimates hold.
For Nolan, Tenet opened to $20 million, but that was during the pandemic and when movie theaters weren't open to 100 percent capacity. For one of the director's lowest openings before that point, you'd have to go back to 2006's The Prestige, which opened to $14.8 million. Oppenheimer marks Nolan's first film with Universal after parting ways with Warner Bros., which saw a nearly 20-year history of box office hits for the director and the studio. Oddly enough, Barbie also comes from Warner Bros. which is one of many reasons the industry and the movie-going public have turned their face-off into a fun grudge match of sorts.
Barbie vs. Oppenheimer
Both films feature a stacked ensemble cast. Barbie is led by Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling and also includes Will Ferrell, Issa Rae, Simu Liu, America Ferrera and Michael Cera, just to name a few. Oppenheimer has Cillian Murphy at the lead, and he's supported by the likes of Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Florence Pugh and Robert Downey Jr., among others. Most of the casting announcements for both films were typically made around the same time, so these polar opposite movies have been going head-to-head prior to opening on the same weekend.
Based on the Mattel toy line of dolls, Barbie had been in development hell for years, but its road to the big screen has begun to flourish in recent weeks due to an aggressive marketing campaign that has infiltrated social media and lucrative merchandising. It's also being viewed as solid counter-programming to Oppenheimer as it's skewing a bit more female and younger. The stars of the film have also done a big marketing blitz for the project ahead of release.
Working in favor of Oppenheimer is the fact that the film was shot on a combination of IMAX 65mm and 65mm large-format film, which gives Nolan a two-week exclusive window to be viewed on IMAX screens. It was reportedly worked out that the movie will actually get a three-week window which gives the film an opportunity to make money from its large format presentation, and the hope is that the adult-skewing drama, which follows the titular theoretical physicist who helped develop the first atomic bomb, will have legs beyond its opening weekend.
Barbie and Oppenheimer face off on the big screen on July 21.
Source: The Hollywood Reporter